CHICAGO (MarketWatch) — If you’re in the market for a home these days, you’re likely looking for a place you can live in for a long time, rather than a house you plan to sell a few short years later. But after deep price drops over the past several years, home buyers want to feel comfortable that the value of the house they buy has a good outlook ahead of it.
In your particular market, that often means taking a close look at the employment picture,population growth and housing inventory before making a purchase.
Unlike traditional forecasts that look a year into the future, Local Market Monitor, a firm that analyzes markets for the banking industry, also puts together a three-year forecast. What follows are the highlights of its longer-term forecast: The top five and bottom five housing markets for the three years ahead, taken from a ranking of the largest 100 markets it covers.Top 5, No. 1. McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TexasA strong recovery in jobs is one reason this housing market is looking good right now. Plus, population growth is triple the national average, according to Local Market Monitor. Home prices rose 19% between 2002 and 2007, followed by a 4% drop between 2007 and today, said Ingo Winzer, president of Local Market Monitor. The number of jobs in the area increased 4% over the past 12 months. “McAllen is a border area and the growth in jobs in the past year is mainly in health services and government services [including schools] because of the rapid growth of the Hispanic population. These are lower-paying jobs that mainly affect the rental market and lower housing market,” Winzer said. Michael/Wikimedia
Amy Hoak is a MarketWatch reporter based in Chicago.